Discover the secrets of predicting stock moves with a powerful blend of fundamental analysis and Elliott Wave Theory-based technical insights!
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Mahindra & Mahindra is an Indian automotive giant that's making waves both
at home and increasingly on the global stage. You probably know them for their
iconic SUVs, those rugged and capable machines that dominate Indian roads. But
Mahindra is so much more than just SUVs. They're a diverse conglomerate with
interests spanning from farm equipment to aerospace to technology.
Mahindra & Mahindra
(M&M) continues to solidify its position as a leader in the automotive and
industrial sectors, showcasing robust financial performance, strategic
advancements, and a commitment to innovation across its diverse business
segments.
M&M reported a consolidated net profit of ₹3,180.58 crore for Q3 FY25, marking a 19.64% year-on-year increase. This growth was driven by strong performances in the automotive and farm equipment sectors, with revenue rising to ₹41,464.98 crore, a 17.74% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
In the SUV segment, Mahindra
is preparing to launch facelifted versions of its popular models, the Thar and
XUV700. The Thar facelift is expected to feature design enhancements inspired
by the Thar Roxx, including revised front and rear designs and updated alloy
wheels. Meanwhile, the XUV700 facelift will draw styling cues from Mahindra's BE 6 and XEV 9e models, aiming for a more modern and futuristic design.
Mahindra Last Mile Mobility Limited (MLMML), a subsidiary of M&M, has reaffirmed its dominance in
India's electric commercial vehicle market for the fourth consecutive year in
FY25. With flagship models like the Treo and Zor Grand, MLMML achieved a 37.3%
market share in the L5 (electric three-wheeler) category. This success
contributed to a significant increase in EV penetration in the segment, rising
to 24.2% from 16.9% in FY24.
In a significant development
for India's aerospace sector, Mahindra Aerostructures Pvt. Ltd. has been
awarded a contract by Airbus Helicopters to manufacture and assemble the main
fuselage of the H130 light single-engine helicopter. This partnership
underscores Mahindra's expanding footprint in high-tech industries and aligns
with the 'Make in India' initiative. The fuselage assemblies will be delivered
to Airbus Helicopters' facility in Europe starting in March 2027.
M&M's strong financial
performance in Q3 FY25 reflects its diversified business model and strategic
focus. The company's consolidated net profit rose by 19.64% year-on-year to
₹3,180.58 crore, while revenue from operations increased by 17.74% to
₹41,464.98 crore. This growth was driven by strong demand for SUVs and
tractors, with SUV volumes growing by 20% and overall volumes increasing by 17% in the quarter.
Mahindra & Mahindra's strategic initiatives in automotive innovation, electric mobility, aerospace manufacturing, and financial performance position it as a dynamic and forward-looking company. As it continues to drive growth across multiple sectors, M&M remains a noteworthy entity for investors.
Technical Analysis
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| Figure 1 |
From around 2008–2009 onwards,
the stock has been rising steadily. After some sideways movement between 2017
and 2020, a powerful breakout happened.
Post-2020, the stock exploded
upwards with big green candles, showing that buyers were very strong.
The price moved up very fast, without much correction, reaching above ₹3,270
for the first time.
After hitting a peak at ₹3,270,
the stock has shown a correction (a fall).
You can see some long wicks on the top — this shows profit booking by investors
after a strong rally.
The stock came down but seems
to have taken support near the ₹2,500 zone.
Now it has bounced back again, a
positive sign. Let’s analyse the stock based on the Elliott Wave Theory.
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| Figure 2 |
According to wave theory, the
first three waves are easily identified in this quarterly bar chart and are
marked with red 1, 2, and 3.
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| Figure 3 |
According to Elliott Wave
Theory, waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive, while waves 2 and 4 are
corrective. Impulsive waves consist of five sub-waves, and corrective waves
consist of three sub-waves. In the monthly chart above, the five sub-waves
within impulsive wave 1 are clearly identified and labelled as black 1, 2, 3,
4, and 5. By using the Fibonacci Extension tool, it is evident that the black
fifth wave has concluded at 61.8% of 0-3, indicating that the black fifth wave
is a normal fifth wave.
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| Figure 4 |
As per the Elliott Wave
structure shown in the chart, the red wave 3 is impulsive. Within this red third wave, we can observe five sub-waves labelled in green as
1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Out of these, the green fifth wave is yet to be completed. Looking deeper, the green third wave itself has subdivided into five smaller
waves, marked in purple as 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Since all five subdivisions of the green third wave are visible and complete,
we can confirm that the green wave 3 has been fully formed.
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| Figure 5 |
In the chart above, it is
noteworthy that the purple wave 5—which completes the green wave 3—has unfolded
into a clear five-wave structure, labelled in yellow as waves i, ii, iii, iv,
and v. This aligns well with Elliott Wave guidelines, where an impulsive wave
(in this case, purple wave 5) must consist of five sub-waves.
Applying the principle of
alternation, we observe that wave (ii) (yellow) was a sideways and deep
correction, while wave (iv) showed a sharper but still relatively shallow
decline, correcting 38.2% of the 3rd wave, maintaining alternation in both
form and depth.
Upon completion of this
five-wave advance, the green wave 3 appears to have ended, followed by a clear
three-wave corrective structure, labelled A-B-C in red. This correction is characteristic
of a wave 4 retracement and shows a classic flat correction pattern.
As of now, it seems that this
green wave 4 correction has likely completed, setting the stage for the
development of the final green wave 5 to the upside.
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| Figure 6 |
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| Figure 7 |
In the two charts above, the red
wave C is clearly subdivided into five impulsive sub-waves, marked in blue as ①, ②, ③, ④, and ⑤. A key observation is that
wave ③ unfolded close to the 161.8%
Fibonacci projection of wave ① (Figure 6).
Furthermore, wave ⑤
appears to terminate near the 61.8% projection of wave 0–3 (Figure 7), which is a normal
length for a fifth wave. This proportionate structure confirms the internal
wave integrity of wave C.
This complete five-wave
structure within wave C signifies the conclusion of the red C wave and the
green wave 4 of a higher degree. According to Elliott Wave principles, a
corrective wave (such as wave 4) must consist of three waves (A-B-C). Since
wave C is now fully formed with proper subdivisions, we can infer that the
entire corrective sequence is complete.
The price action following the
completion of wave 4 further supports this view. As soon as the fifth sub-wave
(⑤) of wave C bottomed out, the
market reversed sharply to the upside. This impulsive upward movement marks the
beginning of wave 5 of a higher degree, in line with classic Elliott Wave
expectations after a completed wave 4 correction.
Thus, from an Elliott Wave
perspective, Mahindra & Mahindra appears to have transitioned from a
corrective phase into a new impulsive advance, suggesting potential for further
upside in the near term.
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| Figure 8 |
The weekly chart of Mahindra
& Mahindra reveals a potentially significant development. Based on the
current Elliott Wave structure, the stock appears to be in the early stages of
green wave 5 of an ongoing impulsive sequence.
If this wave count is correct,
wave 5 is expected to target the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of 0 to wave 3,
which projects an upside potential toward the ₹4,275 level. The purple arrow on
the chart highlights this anticipated move.
Following the recent
consolidation phase, a breakout into wave 5 could signal a strong bullish
continuation. In line with classic Elliott Wave guidelines, wave 5 typically
extends to anywhere between 0.618 to 1.000 of the distance from 0 to wave 3,
suggesting that ₹4,275 to ₹4,400 is a realistic target zone in the coming
months.
If this interpretation holds,
M&M could experience a notable rally from current levels, supported by both
wave structure and Fibonacci projection.
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| Figure 9 |
The updated quarterly chart of
Mahindra & Mahindra adds valuable context to the earlier weekly analysis.
The Elliott Wave structure remains intact, and the volume profile further
strengthens the bullish outlook. Notably, the wave 3 advance was accompanied by
heavy accumulation, as reflected in the volume spike to 50.65 million,
suggesting strong institutional participation during this impulsive leg.
Disclaimer:
I am not an SEBI-registered financial advisor. The analysis and views shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading and investing in the stock market carry a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly encouraged to consult with a certified financial advisor or SEBI-registered professional before making any financial decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred based on the information provided.