Discover the secrets of predicting stock moves with a powerful blend of fundamental analysis and Elliott Wave Theory-based technical insights!
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
ICICI Bank, one of India’s
leading private sector banks, has shown remarkable financial growth over the
last decade. With a consistent focus on strengthening its core banking
business, enhancing reserves, and expanding its deposit base, the bank has laid
down a solid foundation to sustain its leadership in the Indian banking
landscape. Let’s explore the financial journey of ICICI Bank from March 2013 to
September 2024 based on consolidated data.
ICICI Bank’s equity capital
rose steadily from ₹1,154 crores in 2013 to ₹1,409 crores in 2024, reflecting a
disciplined expansion strategy. More impressively, the reserves increased more
than fourfold — from ₹67,609 crores to ₹277,026 crores. This substantial
accumulation of reserves highlights the bank’s ability to retain earnings and
build a stronger balance sheet year over year.
Deposits are the lifeline of
any bank, and ICICI Bank has shown exceptional performance in this area. The
deposit base surged from ₹3.88 lakh crores in 2013 to ₹15.29 lakh crores by
2024. This massive growth not only indicates increased customer trust but also
reflects the bank’s effectiveness in mobilizing funds.
ICICI Bank’s borrowings have
seen fluctuations — peaking at ₹2.29 lakh crores in 2018 before settling around
₹2.19 lakh crores in 2024. While borrowings are essential to fuel lending and
expansion, the bank’s recent control over this metric suggests an effort to
optimize financing costs and manage debt responsibly.
From ₹1.18 lakh crores in 2013
to ₹4.88 lakh crores in 2024, other liabilities have increased significantly.
These include provisions, deferred taxes, and other payables. It’s important
for the bank to continually monitor these obligations to avoid risk build-up
and maintain a healthy financial position.
The bank’s total liabilities
have grown substantially — from ₹6.74 lakh crores to ₹25.16 lakh crores. This
fourfold increase signifies ICICI Bank’s growing operations and expanding
market presence. However, it also underlines the importance of prudent
liability management.
Fixed assets grew from ₹5,473
crores to ₹14,254 crores — showing investment in branches, tech infrastructure,
and physical assets. Meanwhile, investments soared to ₹8.74 lakh crores from
₹2.55 lakh crores — underscoring a robust strategy to grow wealth through
diversified investment portfolios.
The rise in other assets from
₹4.13 lakh crores to ₹16.27 lakh crores represents the bank’s aggressive
expansion in lending and enhanced liquidity buffers with RBI. This trend
supports the bank’s ongoing efforts to drive credit growth in the economy.
ICICI Bank’s total assets have
grown from ₹6.74 lakh crores in 2013 to ₹25.16 lakh crores in 2024. This
expansion reflects a combination of strong customer acquisition, lending
growth, technological upgrades, and smart capital deployment.
ICICI Bank has displayed solid
performance over the years, backed by rising deposits, increased reserves, and
strong asset growth. The bank’s strategic focus on maintaining a healthy
capital structure and expanding investments positions it as a key player in the
future of Indian banking.
ICICI Bank and ICICI
Securities Merger:
ICICI Bank is planning to
merge with ICICI Securities, its subsidiary. For every 100 shares of ICICI
Securities, shareholders will get 67 shares of ICICI Bank. This merger aims to
simplify business operations and create more growth opportunities.
As retail traders,
understanding a bank’s financial health can help us make better decisions. ICICI
Bank's strong financials and expansion plans make it a stable choice for
long-term investments. However, it's essential to keep track of market trends,
technical indicators, and any major changes like the merger.
Technical
Analysis
 |
| Figure 1 |
As shown in the chart above
(Figure 1), this is the quarterly price chart of ICICI Bank, which traces its
journey from the time of its IPO in 1999. The stock was listed at just ₹7, and
by 2025, it had experienced a remarkable long-term uptrend to around ₹1,185.
Over the years, the stock experienced two notable corrections — the first
during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, and the second in 2020 during the
COVID-19 market selloff.
Now, let’s analyse this price
journey through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory to uncover the structure of
this long-term uptrend and anticipate possible future movement. According to
the theory, price movements in the market are driven by the collective
psychology of investors and traders, which creates recurring wave patterns on
the chart.
As Elliott Wave practitioners,
our objective is to identify these wave formations based on established rules
and guidelines. Through this approach, we aim to better understand where ICICI
Bank currently stands in its wave cycle and what lies ahead for its price
movement.
 |
| Figure 2 |
In the quarterly chart above
(Figure 2), the major wave counts have been labelled, with Wave 1 and Wave 2
clearly marked (in red colour). While Wave 3 appears to be in progress, it is
not yet confirmed whether this wave has been fully unfolded. According to
Elliott Wave Theory, both Wave 1 and Wave 3 are impulsive in nature and must
consist of five smaller sub-waves within them.
For a wave to be validated as
a complete impulse, these internal five-wave structures must be distinctly
visible. Therefore, to confirm the completeness of Wave 1 and Wave 3, our next
step will be to analyse the sub-waves within these waves. This will help us determine
whether the impulsive sequence is intact and provide clarity on the stock’s
long-term direction.
 |
| Figure 3 |
As per Elliott Wave Theory,
every impulsive wave should ideally consist of five sub-waves. So, Wave 1(in
Red) is also expected to follow that rule. However, in the chart above, you can
see that Wave 1 is made up of five sub-waves labelled (a), (b), (c), (d), and
(e), but these waves don’t follow the typical rules of an impulse wave — like
non-overlapping structure and clear extensions.
This is where the concept of a
Diagonal Triangle becomes important.
The diagonal pattern was
introduced in Elliott Wave Theory to explain such situations — when the market
moves in a five-wave structure but does not follow all the standard impulse
rules. These patterns still show clear direction and wave behaviour but with
overlapping and wedge-like movement.
There are two types of
diagonals: Leading and Ending. Since this diagonal is forming in the position
of Wave 1 (the start of a larger trend), it is called a Leading Diagonal
Triangle.
So, in this chart of ICICI
Bank, Wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal Triangle, composed of five legs — (a), (b),
(c), (d), and (e) — showing a special case of five-wave movement that signals
the beginning of a new trend.
 |
| Figure 4 |
 |
| Figure 5 |
In the charts above (Figures 4
& 5), the blue waves (1) to (5) represent sub-waves of the larger third
wave (in black). Wave (4) (in blue) is currently under observation to determine
if it has been completed. In the second image, wave (2) (in blue) retraced 50% of
wave (1), indicating a simple correction. Based on the Elliott Wave Rule of
Alternation, the upcoming wave (4) (in blue) is likely to be more complex and
shallow. This suggests wave (4) may still be unfolding.
Option - 1
 |
| Figure 6 |
 |
| Figure 7 |
The charts (Figures 6 & 7) show that wave 4
(labelled in blue) has completed a three-wave corrective structure. Wave 5
appears to be developing as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, which
typically forms at the end of impulse moves. This diagonal pattern is visible
in the second image with labels (a) (b) (c) (d) and (e) (in violet).
If this Elliott Wave interpretation is correct, the
blue arrow projection in the second image suggests ICICI Bank's price could
first reach around ₹1,425 to complete the diagonal pattern, followed by a
significant reversal down toward approximately ₹1,175. This forecast points to
a bearish outlook for ICICI Bank in the near term once the current wave
structure is completed.
Option - 2
 |
| Figure 8 |
 |
| Figure 9 |
Now, let's examine the current
structure (Figures 8 & 9) from a different perspective to forecast
the probable path of price action in the days ahead.
Applying the Rule of
Alternation, since wave 2 was sharp and simple, wave 4 is anticipated to unfold
as a shallow yet complex correction. The ongoing development suggests that wave
4 is forming an expanding diagonal—a pattern typically seen in corrective
structures. This diagonal appears to be unfolding in five waves, labelled (a),
(b), (c), (d), and (e) (in purple), as shown in the first image (Figure 8). At
this stage, wave (e) is yet to be completed, indicating that the corrective pattern
is still in progress.
If this wave count holds true,
the market is likely to follow the path outlined by the projected blue line in
the second image. Under this scenario, I anticipate the stock price to first
dip toward Rs 1160 to complete wave (e), followed by a robust bullish impulse
that could drive the price toward the Rs 1600 target (61.8% of 0-3), marking
the initiation of normal wave 5 (in blue).
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered financial advisor. The analysis and views shared
here are purely for educational and informational purposes and should not be
considered as financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading and
investing in the stock market carry a high level of risk, and past performance
is not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly encouraged to consult
with a certified financial advisor or SEBI-registered professional before
making any financial decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred
based on the information provided.