Discover the secrets of predicting stock moves with a powerful blend of fundamental analysis and Elliott Wave Theory-based technical insights!
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Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Bharat Electronics Limited
(BEL), a Navratna company under the Ministry of Defence, is one of India’s most
strategically important public sector undertakings. With a strong presence in
defence electronics, BEL manufactures advanced systems like radars,
communication networks, electronic warfare systems, and electro-optics. It also
serves non-defence sectors, including smart cities, homeland security, solar
energy, and e-governance.
The company has delivered an
outstanding performance in the financial year 2024–25. BEL recorded a
provisional turnover of ₹23,000 crore, marking a 16% increase over the previous
year’s ₹19,820 crore. This growth reflects its ability to execute large-scale
projects efficiently and respond to India’s increasing defence needs.
The highlight of FY25 has been
the company’s robust order inflow. BEL secured multiple major contracts, the
most notable being a ₹2,210 crore order from the Ministry of Defence for
Electronic Warfare (EW) suites for Mi-17 V5 helicopters. Along with previous
orders worth ₹16,560 crore, this brings BEL’s total order intake for FY25 to
₹18,770 crore. Additionally, the company received a ₹593.22 crore contract from
the Indian Air Force for the maintenance of the Akash Missile System. It has
also finalised negotiations for potential future orders worth around ₹5,000
crore.
As of April 1, 2025, BEL’s
total order book is a massive ₹71,650 crore, including export
orders worth US$ 359 million. Export performance remains strong, with FY25
export sales reaching US$ 106 million, a 14% rise from the previous year.
With these new orders, BEL's
total order book is now sitting at a very healthy ₹71,650 crore, including
significant export orders. This provides excellent revenue visibility for the
coming years. Speaking of collaborations, BEL has also formed a strategic joint venture with Israel Aerospace Industries, called BEL IAI AeroSystems Private
Ltd. This partnership will likely lead to developing even more advanced
and cutting-edge defence technologies.
With the fundamental picture looking strong and
promising, it's time to shift our focus to the charts. Let’s now analyse BEL’s
stock through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory to identify the possible next
move in its price structure.
Technical
Analysis
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| Figure 1 |
The picture above is the quarterly candlestick chart of Bharat Electronics Limited. Looking at the stock chart, the price shows a remarkable upward trajectory, particularly since 2020. After maintaining modest fluctuations between 1999-2017, BEL experienced a brief decline around 2018-2019 before entering a dramatic uptrend. Now, a strong green candle suggests continued momentum and investor confidence in the company's prospects.
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| Figure 2 |
The quarterly chart of BEL
highlights a clear three-wave structure, marked in red as Waves 1, 2, and 3.
Wave 1 represents the initial long-term rally that began in 1999 and extended
till 2017. This was followed by Wave 2, a corrective phase during 2018–2019,
where the stock experienced a temporary pullback. The ongoing Wave 3, which
started around 2020, is the most powerful so far, characterised by a sharp and
steep rise, reflecting strong bullish momentum. The next step in this analysis
will be to dive into lower time frames to identify the sub-waves within these
major waves for a more detailed Elliott Wave count.
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| Figure 3 |
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| Figure 4 |
Figure 3 displays the
sub-waves within red Wave 1 on the monthly chart, while Figure 4 illustrates
the sub-waves within red Wave 3 on the weekly chart. In Figure 4, the five-wave
structure within the impulsive red Wave 3 is marked in blue as (i), (ii), (iii),
(iv), and (v). Notably, Wave (v) is yet to fully form, suggesting that the
current price action remains bullish. This incomplete fifth sub-wave indicates
there may be further upside potential for BEL as the final leg of this
impulsive wave continues to unfold. The ongoing movement likely represents the
early phase of Wave (v) within the broader Wave 3 structure.
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| Figure 5 |
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| Figure 6 Figure 5 shows the three
sub-waves (a, b, c) of the blue Wave (iv) clearly unfolding on the daily chart,
indicating that this corrective phase is complete. With blue Wave (iv) fully formed,
the potential target for blue Wave (v) can now be projected using the Fibonacci
extension tool. In Figure 6, which presents the weekly chart, this tool is
applied to calculate the typical fifth wave target—61.8% of the distance from
Wave 0 to Wave 3, which points to a projected level of approximately ₹437.    Once the short-term target is
identified, extending the analysis further can help in pinpointing a potential
entry point. One effective approach is to accurately identify the five
sub-waves within the blue Wave (v). As shown in Figure 7 (hourly chart), these five
sub-waves are labelled in yellow as 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Further breakdowns of the
impulsive yellow Waves 1 and 3 are shown in Figures 8 and 9, respectively. It’s important to note that
the previously mentioned ₹437 target is considered a short-term target, as it
corresponds to the completion of Red Wave 3. Upon reaching this level, the
stock may face selling pressure, leading to the development of red Wave 4, a
corrective move. If this wave count is accurate, then after the completion of
Wave 4, a final rally is likely to emerge, forming red Wave 5, which could push
the price higher once again. BEL stands out as a
fundamentally robust company with strong government backing, a growing export
base, and increasing relevance in India’s self-reliant defence initiative. The
combination of strong order inflows, rising revenue, and a technically
favourable Elliott Wave structure makes it a stock worth watching, especially
for investors and traders looking for growth backed by fundamentals. Disclaimer: This
article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not
investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered
financial advisor before making any investment decisions. |